What these files give you
These excel files calculate the probabilities of success in Options trading using Iron Condor and Condor Spreads strategies, estimating the percentage of success, and the average, median and standard deviation of the financial outcome at the exit date determined by you.
To estimate the “Probabilities & Results”, each file generates twenty thousand calculations using twenty thousand different casual prices of the underline stock within the minimum and maximum price calculated according to the minimum and maximum volatilty of the stock.
These calculations are performed using the Montecarlo theory.
Using different strike prices and/or expiry dates, within the logics of this Option strategy, you have the possibilty to compare different set of stock options, and then to pick the best for your strategy.
You have also the possibility to check the result of your option trade by updating the “current” quotes of the options.
What this file does not give
This file does not predict the movement of the stock nor the future options movements.
How to use the file
1. Choose the stock on which you want to create the option strategy
2. Pick the options according to the logics of the Options strategy that you decide to use.
3. Fill out the cells in light yellow of the Dashboard.
4. Using the values of the historical volatility “Vol” and those of the implied volatility (IV), proceed to determine the mininum and maximum volatility and fill out the boxes Min Vol and Max Vol accordingly.
5. Run the calculations: menu “Formulas”, command “Recalculate now”
6. See the results in the “Probabilities & Results” box
7. Compare different expiry dates and/or different set of options and see which combination give you the highest probabilities and value of return.
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