Introducing Options Profit Probability Calculator

Option Profit Probability Calculator

The Option Profit Probability Calculator estimates

  • the percentage of success
  • the average, median and standard deviation

of the net result of your options positions at the exit date determined by you.

How all this is calculated

These calculations are performed using a special version of the Montecarlo theory.

To estimate the “Probabilities & Results”, the file generates sixty thousand calculations through sixty thousand different casual prices of the underline stock within the minimum and maximum price calculated according to the volatilty of the stock.

Within the logics of your Option strategy, you have the possibilty to compare different underlying stocks, different strike prices, different expiry dates, and then to pick the best for your strategy.

What the Options Profit Probability Calculator does not give you

Remember: this file does not predict the movement of the stock nor the movement of the stock options.

Data input

Option Profit Probability Calculator data input
  • Choose the stock on which you want to create the option strategy.
  • Pick the options according to the logics of your strategy.
  • Fill out the data in the cells in light yellow of the Dashboard.
  • “Vol” is the historical volatility of the stock, reported in the various web sites together with the quotes of the options; the file uses the “Vol” to calculate the value of the Implied Volatility (“IV”). 
  • You can find the Historical Volatility values in many websites, where you can also check the values of the highest and lowest of the recent period. Using the values of the historical volatility “Vol” and those of the implied volatility (IV), proceed to determine the mininum and maximum volatility and fill out the boxes Min Vol and Max Vol accordingly.
  • Section “Entries“. The legs “Adj” are to be filled out only in case of adjustments being made to the options strategy.
  • When a leg is closed, remember to classify it as “C” in the “Open/Closed” column and to manually book the closing price.

 Data output

Options profit probability calculator

When all the data input is done, it is time to run the calculations: menu “Formulas”, command “Recalculate now“, and you can see the results in the “Probabilities & Results” box:

  • the probability of success (%)
  • the average, the median and the standard deviation of the profit or loss of the whole strategy, inclusive of all legs involved ($)

Purchase the Options Profit Probability Calculator

You can buy the Option Profit Probability Calculator for a group of options strategies or all together.